Japan's Turn to the Right: The Sudden Rise of Anti-Foreigner Populism

Temperatures remain in the mid-twenties here in Japan as the rainy season continues, in contrast to soaring temperatures in London and Paris. For the Japanese, rainy season means gorgeous blue, lilac, and pink hydrangeas (ajisai) blooming everywhere, hardly surprising given that they are a plant that needs a lot of water - hydrangea itself comes from the Greek for "water vessel" - and that thrives in the high humidity and wet soil: apparently, the abundant rainfall prevents them from wilting while intensifying the vividness of their colours. Hydrangea festivals are everywhere: see here for a round-up of ten stunning spots for hydrangea viewing around Tokyo.

Sanseito election ad (Yomiuri 2025)

The end of the rainy season roughly coincides with the end of the ordinary Diet (parliament) session, which will wind up on July 17 this year. Consequenty, the damp weather matches a period of intense late-session parliamentary manoeuvering, budget approvals, and negotiations over major legislation. Japanese politics has changed a lot since the upper house election last July, an election which marked the emergence of an anti-foreigner populism previously absent in Japanese politics. As I mentioned in my final blog post of last year, the rapid rise of Japan's far-right Sanseito Party marked a frightening xenophobic shift in tone in discussions on migration and "foreigners" in Japan. My paper discussing the reasons for the dramatic emergence of a party which many have likened to Reform UK and Germany's AfD is at last out, so at the risk of alienating casual readers I'm going to summarise the key reasons for this seismic shift in Japanese politics. For those masochistic enough to want to read in full the paper check HERE!

Post on X by Kamiya (@jinkamiya) 2025/09/20

Sanseito (参政党) - literally "political participation party" - was founded in 2020 by Sohei Kamiya and others but came to prominence when it secured 14 seats in the House of Councilors election in July 2025 running on a "Japanese First" slogan (shown in the election ad above). Their key stance was opposition to current policies of accepting "too many foreigners" (行き過ぎた外国人受け入れ政策に反対) - explained in the social media post right. The election marked the first time a clearly far-right party had secured more than 10% of the national vote. The question I wrestle with in my paper is why anti-foreigner populism - something previously consigned to fringe groups in Japan and relegated to the periphery - suddenly exploded into the mainstream and why the "foreigner problem" (外国人問題) has now become a significant political issue for voters. 

My answer in a nutshell is not a right-wing political vacuum or economic hardship but a rapid increase in the visibility of "foreigners" - both residents and tourists - creating a threat perception in terms of the loss of their homogeneous identity. The COVID-19 pandemic laid the ground work in terms of upsetting the balance between intergroup contact (which tends to lead to a reduction in prejudice towards migrants) and perceived threat (which can foster anti-immigrant attitudes). And the arrival of "the age of populism" and the "first year of SNS elections" in 2024 - that is, an elite loss of control over the migrant narrative - created a fertile environment for Sanseito to exploit anxieties over rapidly growing numbers of "foreigners." In sum, a visible and rapid increase in "foreigners" has created a feeling that traditional Japanese identity is being challenged or threatened. The result has been a broad and unprecedented shift or change in tone, attitude, and policy towards foreigners, as evidenced by stricter regulations and hardening public opinion. For someone who has lived in Japan for forty years it is heart-breaking to witness the abrupt change of tone in a country in which I have always felt welcome and valued. Thoughts? Drop me a note in the COMMENTS.